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Let’s be clear: other than that 94-95 team, the three other teams the current Canucks trail on that chart were B.A.D.
And it says a lot when in 2021 you’re averaging almost five goals *against* per game.
The tough math of the playoff chase
The math of a 56-game season is a bit tricky but if we some simple translation from an 82-game season, we do quickly get a picture of where things are are.
Say, conservatively, the first place team in the North were to be the equivalent of a 100-point team in a normal season. (The first place team is probably going to finish with more, but let’s just do it like so.)
In a 56-game season, that’s 68 points, give or take.
That’s a 34-win season.
If you’re conservative on the other end of the playoff scale and say you need the equivalent of a 93-point season to just qualify for the dance, over just 56 games, that’s roughly 63 points, or a 31.5 win season.
The Canucks have two wins in seven games. That means 29 wins in their remaining 49 games, give or take. Five games over .500.
That’s a lot to ask. It’s not impossible, but still a lot to ask. We’re already in the window where ever game they don’t pick up points, their runway gets a little shorter.
And of course, of those 49 remaining games, they still have six against the Habs, all nine against the Leafs and still eight against the Flames. So 23 games against the clear cream of the North Division.
Even if you say the Canucks win *half* those games — and given how they mostly struggled against Montreal and Calgary this past week, that currently seems hard to imagine — that still means they need 18 wins from the remaining 26 games against the Oilers, Jets and Senators.